Donald Trump’s Chances of Losing Texas, According to Polls

Former President Donald Trump looks set to retain Texas in the 2024 election, according to polls, despite past suggestions the historically red state could be in play for Kamala Harris in November.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/Nexstar Media poll released Thursday of 950 likely Texas voters showed Trump with a 5-point lead over the vice president (51 percent to 46) in the state. The poll was conducted between September 22-24, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Trump has marginally increased his lead over Harris since an Emerson Texas poll from early September. The previous poll of 845 likely voters had Trump with a 4-point lead (50 percent to 46). The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Texas has long been a red state, having voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the previous 11 elections. Some Democratic figures have suggested that Texas could be competitive for Harris this year following the enthusiastic support for her White House bid.
Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who narrowly lost the 2018 Texas Senate election to Ted Cruz, told MSNBC in August: “I can tell you, in Texas, which Barack Obama lost by 16 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton lost by nine points in 2016, and Joe Biden only lost by [5.6] percent in 2020, this is really the sleeper battleground state.
“If at a minimum, we can get Trump to play defense here, because of this change in dynamic, it’s going to open up other possibilities in other states. And someday sooner than later, and maybe it’s 2024, we win Texas.”
However, even at the time, Mark Jones, professor of political science and fellow in political science at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas, had downplayed the suggestion that Harris could flip Texas in November.
“At the present time, while Harris is likely to make the race more competitive than it would have been had Biden been the Democratic nominee, I don’t see Harris doing much better than Biden did in 2020, and thus a Trump victory in the mid-to-high single digits is the most likely scenario today,” Jones told Newsweek.
Recent polling and forecasters seem to indeed confirm Trump is the favorite to win Texas in November.
An ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters, released Wednesday, showed Trump was leading Harris in Texas by 8.6 points (54.3 percent to 45.7). The poll was conducted between September 7 and 24 with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
A Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll of 1,200 likely Texas voters, conducted on September 13-18, showed Trump with a 6-point lead over the vice president (50 percent to 44).
These results are in line with the national polling average from FiveThirtyEight. As of September 25, Trump had overall average lead of 6.3 points over Harris.
Similarly, forecaster Race to the White House is giving Trump a 91 percent chance of winning Texas.